Why Obama is not so inevitable (4)

A feeling seems to be developing that Barack Obama is the 'inevitable' next President and simply needs to 'play it safe' to be inaugurated next January.

This assumption, whilst heart-warming to those who see in Obama America's best bet to tackle poverty, climate change and restore some of their dented prestige in the world, amounts to wishful thinking, for several key reasons.

He could simply be robbed
Finally, onto the most depressing - but very real - prospect that Obama would be supported by the majority of eligible voters but still not reach the White House.

There is a very strong possibility that 'dirty tricks' - in the shape of eccentric voting laws that will act to prevent blacks coming out in the force they are expected to, could cost Obama. It is essential his camp are able to exploit the black vote fully, but the flaw in the US voting system, giving states power over the rules for voting, means they could be prevented from doing so.

As the Guardian reports, "Indiana introduced a law in 2005 requiring voters to have a government-issued driving licence that includes photo ID. Fair voting rights groups and Democrats claim this discriminates against poor people, many of whom do not have cars. The Indiana supreme court upheld the new law in April this year." Patently unfair, undemocratic and unconstitutional it may be - but the Republicans will stop at nothing to win this election.

With a national lead of 7% Obama is in good shape. But hold the champagne on ice: there is still an uncomfortably high chance of Sarah Palin being a heartbeat away from the presidency.