Why Obama is not so inevitable (3)

A feeling seems to be developing that Barack Obama is the 'inevitable' next President and simply needs to 'play it safe' to be inaugurated next January.

This assumption, whilst heart-warming to those who see in Obama America's best bet to tackle poverty, climate change and restore some of their dented prestige in the world, amounts to wishful thinking, for several key reasons.

Game changers
The possiblity remains for significant game changers, with a terrorist attack being the one that would benefit McCain the most, enabling him to shift the focus of the election from the economy onto national security. Even if one such external event is not forthcoming, however, hope remains for McCain.

The third debate will be a seminal moment in the race - Obama has shaded the first two, but by an essentially insignificant amount, and McCain will unleash all he has.

Then there is the legendary GOP attack machine. The issue of Reverand Jeremiah Wright has been kept mysteriously quiet recently - perhaps the Republicans are planning to use it as the basis for a series of last-minute attack ads. Conservative columnists, radio and talk show hosts will also do all they can to stop Obama gaining election.