Why Obama is not so inevitable (2)

A feeling seems to be developing that Barack Obama is the 'inevitable' next President and simply needs to 'play it safe' to be inaugurated next January.

This assumption, whilst heart-warming to those who see in Obama America's best bet to tackle poverty, climate change and restore some of their dented prestige in the world, amounts to wishful thinking, for several key reasons.

Precedents
There are plenty of precedents of nominees recovering dramatically in the polls in the month prior to an election - by a much larger amount than John McCain needs to this time round.

In 2000, Al Gore trailed by over 15% in the popular vote prior to the Democratic convention, and recovered to win the popular vote.

In 1980 the race was neck-and-neck lamost till the end. Then Ronald Reagan allayed fears his views were too extremist, and promptly crushed Jimmy Carter - and the key coalition of 'Reagan Democrats' was born.

The 1976 election is seen as being determined by Gerald Ford's infamous gaffe, when he claimed there was no Soviet Union domination in Poland. Yet, while it is true this terrible error in a Presidential debate handed Carter a huge lead, it did not last. In the end, running an uninspiring campaign that rather foreshadowed his presidency, Carter clung on to win, but by a margin that was closer than any other election from 1916 to 2000.